LaLiga 2025-26 · Data up to 24 May 2026
Head to head
How two teams are doing against what the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.
| Season | Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 38 | 38 |
| Points | 50 | 86 |
| Points expected by the market | 48.47 | 80.18 |
| Gap | +1.53 | +5.82 |
| Yield | −13.3% | +5.7% |
Both market films
Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Each team's cumulative gap, match by match. Above the 0 line, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Each team's matches grouped by the average closing odds on it to win.
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | Gap | Matches playedMP | Gap | ||
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | 22 | +0.02 | ||
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | +1.44 | 13 | +6.69 | ||
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | −0.73 | 2* | −0.02 | ||
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | +0.82 | 1* | −0.88 | ||
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative (marked with *).
Their meeting this season
9 Nov 2025 Rayo Vallecano 0 – 0 Real Madrid
| Team | Win | Draw | ExpectedExp. | PointsPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 16% | 20% | 0.69 | 1 | +0.31 |
| Real Madrid | 63% | 20% | 2.11 | 1 | −1.11 |
1 Feb 2026 Real Madrid 2 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
| Team | Win | Draw | ExpectedExp. | PointsPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 75% | 15% | 2.40 | 3 | +0.60 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 10% | 15% | 0.44 | 0 | −0.44 |