LaLiga 2024-25 · Data up to 25 May 2025
Head to head
How two teams are doing against what the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.
| Season | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 38 | 38 |
| Points | 84 | 70 |
| Points expected by the market | 81.45 | 59.88 |
| Gap | +2.55 | +10.12 |
| Yield | −2.4% | +11.5% |
Both market films
Real MadridVillarreal
Each team's cumulative gap, match by match. Above the 0 line, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Each team's matches grouped by the average closing odds on it to win.
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | Gap | Matches playedMP | Gap | ||
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 24 | +2.64 | 4* | +2.68 | ||
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | +1.46 | 15 | +3.71 | ||
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 3* | −0.52 | 13 | +4.99 | ||
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 1* | −1.03 | 6 | −1.26 | ||
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative (marked with *).
Their meeting this season
5 Oct 2024 Real Madrid 2 – 0 Villarreal
| Team | Win | Draw | ExpectedExp. | PointsPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 76% | 15% | 2.42 | 3 | +0.58 |
| Villarreal | 10% | 15% | 0.43 | 0 | −0.43 |
15 Mar 2025 Villarreal 1 – 2 Real Madrid
| Team | Win | Draw | ExpectedExp. | PointsPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 31% | 26% | 1.18 | 0 | −1.18 |
| Real Madrid | 43% | 26% | 1.56 | 3 | +1.44 |