LaLiga 2025-26 · Data up to 24 May 2026
Head to head
How two teams are doing against what the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.
| Season | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 38 | 38 |
| Points | 86 | 72 |
| Points expected by the market | 80.18 | 59.52 |
| Gap | +5.82 | +12.48 |
| Yield | +5.7% | +11.5% |
Both market films
Real MadridVillarreal
Each team's cumulative gap, match by match. Above the 0 line, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Each team's matches grouped by the average closing odds on it to win.
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | Gap | Matches playedMP | Gap | ||
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 22 | +0.02 | 5 | +4.03 | ||
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | +6.69 | 14 | +9.95 | ||
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 2* | −0.02 | 12 | +1.62 | ||
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 1* | −0.88 | 7 | −3.13 | ||
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative (marked with *).
Their meeting this season
4 Oct 2025 Real Madrid 3 – 1 Villarreal
| Team | Win | Draw | ExpectedExp. | PointsPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 68% | 19% | 2.21 | 3 | +0.79 |
| Villarreal | 14% | 19% | 0.60 | 0 | −0.60 |
24 Jan 2026 Villarreal 0 – 2 Real Madrid
| Team | Win | Draw | ExpectedExp. | PointsPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 25% | 23% | 0.99 | 0 | −0.99 |
| Real Madrid | 51% | 23% | 1.77 | 3 | +1.23 |