Germany · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 28 Jun 2020

2. Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Bielefeld	34	68	54.4	+13.6	+10.3%
2	Darmstadt	34	52	41.6	+10.4	+20.4%
3	Erzgebirge Aue	34	47	38.4	+8.6	+12.8%
4	Heidenheim	34	55	47.9	+7.1	+14.9%
5	Greuther Furth	34	44	40.6	+3.4	−1.1%
6	Bochum	34	46	44.3	+1.7	−18.6%
7	Regensburg	34	43	42.6	+0.4	−12.7%
8	Sandhausen	34	43	44.9	−1.9	−3.4%
9	Hannover	34	48	50.4	−2.4	−11.8%
10	Osnabruck	34	40	42.4	−2.4	−15.4%
11	Wehen	34	34	37.6	−3.6	+5.5%
12	Stuttgart	34	58	63.4	−5.4	−13.6%
13	Karlsruhe	34	37	42.7	−5.7	−32.6%
14	Dresden	34	32	37.8	−5.8	−28.4%
15	St Pauli	34	39	44.9	−5.9	−23.6%
16	Holstein Kiel	34	43	49.2	−6.2	−19.0%
17	Hamburg	34	54	65.4	−11.4	−34.5%
18	Nurnberg	34	37	48.7	−11.7	−41.9%