Germany · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 23 May 2021

2. Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Bochum	34	67	53.9	+13.1	+40.0%
2	Greuther Furth	34	64	53.7	+10.3	+13.7%
3	Holstein Kiel	34	62	53.6	+8.4	+13.2%
4	Erzgebirge Aue	34	44	37.9	+6.1	+4.4%
5	Karlsruhe	34	52	46.2	+5.8	+12.7%
6	Fortuna Dusseldorf	34	56	51.7	+4.3	+3.3%
7	St Pauli	34	47	43.6	+3.4	+3.3%
8	Darmstadt	34	51	47.6	+3.4	+19.8%
9	Heidenheim	34	51	49.1	+1.9	+9.4%
10	Paderborn	34	47	48.9	−1.9	−14.5%
11	Nurnberg	34	44	46.8	−2.8	−17.0%
12	Regensburg	34	38	41.0	−3.0	−34.3%
13	Hamburg	34	58	61.9	−3.9	−13.6%
14	Braunschweig	34	31	35.5	−4.5	−32.6%
15	Osnabruck	34	33	39.1	−6.1	−8.8%
16	Wurzburger Kickers	34	25	32.4	−7.4	−12.2%
17	Sandhausen	34	34	41.5	−7.5	−18.2%
18	Hannover	34	42	52.4	−10.4	−21.4%