Points expected by the market
The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.
Germany · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 15 May 2022
2. Bundesliga: the market vs the results
Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.
Gap
Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.
Yield
The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.
Sorted by gap, high to low
Above expectationsBelow expectations
| 1 | Schalke 04 | 34 | 65 | 55.2 |
+9.8
|
+19.2% |
| 2 | Darmstadt | 34 | 60 | 52.1 |
+7.9
|
+16.1% |
| 3 | Sandhausen | 34 | 41 | 34.8 |
+6.2
|
+8.0% |
| 4 | St Pauli | 34 | 57 | 51.4 |
+5.6
|
+5.4% |
| 5 | Nurnberg | 34 | 51 | 47.3 |
+3.7
|
+5.8% |
| 6 | Paderborn | 34 | 51 | 47.5 |
+3.5
|
+6.3% |
| 7 | Heidenheim | 34 | 52 | 48.6 |
+3.4
|
+5.2% |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 63 | 60.9 |
+2.1
|
+1.9% |
| 9 | Hansa Rostock | 34 | 41 | 41.6 |
−0.6
|
−1.9% |
| 10 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 45 | 45.9 |
−0.9
|
+13.2% |
| 11 | Hamburg | 34 | 60 | 61.3 |
−1.3
|
−12.0% |
| 12 | Karlsruhe | 34 | 41 | 44.5 |
−3.5
|
−31.2% |
| 13 | Regensburg | 34 | 40 | 43.8 |
−3.8
|
−29.7% |
| 14 | Hannover | 34 | 42 | 46.6 |
−4.6
|
−18.9% |
| 15 | Erzgebirge Aue | 34 | 26 | 32.0 |
−6.0
|
−33.1% |
| 16 | Fortuna Dusseldorf | 34 | 44 | 50.7 |
−6.7
|
−23.1% |
| 17 | Dresden | 34 | 32 | 39.9 |
−7.9
|
−41.8% |
| 18 | Ingolstadt | 34 | 21 | 35.0 |
−14.0
|
−61.7% |