Germany · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 28 May 2023

2. Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Heidenheim	34	67	50.9	+16.1	+24.9%
2	Darmstadt	34	67	56.5	+10.5	+18.6%
3	St Pauli	34	58	52.0	+6.0	+7.7%
4	Fortuna Dusseldorf	34	58	52.2	+5.8	+8.9%
5	Hamburg	34	66	60.7	+5.3	+5.1%
6	Magdeburg	34	43	41.3	+1.7	+8.8%
7	Holstein Kiel	34	46	45.3	+0.7	−9.5%
8	Hannover	34	44	43.6	+0.4	−8.5%
9	Hansa Rostock	34	41	40.7	+0.3	+6.7%
10	Paderborn	34	55	55.3	−0.3	−9.0%
11	Kaiserslautern	34	45	45.6	−0.6	−9.9%
12	Karlsruhe	34	46	47.0	−1.0	−12.5%
13	Braunschweig	34	36	39.9	−3.9	−23.1%
14	Nurnberg	34	39	44.1	−5.1	−18.1%
15	Sandhausen	34	28	34.3	−6.3	−27.8%
16	Greuther Furth	34	41	47.8	−6.8	−28.8%
17	Regensburg	34	31	37.9	−6.9	−19.2%
18	Bielefeld	34	34	42.8	−8.8	−19.4%