Germany · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 19 May 2024

2. Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Holstein Kiel	34	68	48.4	+19.6	+60.2%
2	Fortuna Dusseldorf	34	63	54.4	+8.6	+7.3%
3	St Pauli	34	69	61.9	+7.1	+8.4%
4	Karlsruhe	34	55	49.0	+6.0	+6.4%
5	Paderborn	34	52	47.5	+4.5	+17.0%
6	Hannover	34	52	49.0	+3.0	−8.9%
7	Greuther Furth	34	50	47.8	+2.2	−5.5%
8	Nurnberg	34	40	39.7	+0.3	−8.6%
9	Hertha	34	48	48.1	−0.1	−3.2%
10	Elversberg	34	43	44.1	−1.1	+11.0%
11	Braunschweig	34	38	39.7	−1.7	−8.3%
12	Hamburg	34	58	60.0	−2.0	−8.4%
13	Hansa Rostock	34	31	36.6	−5.6	−18.4%
14	Wehen	34	32	38.1	−6.1	−18.3%
15	Schalke 04	34	43	49.4	−6.4	−23.6%
16	Osnabruck	34	28	35.1	−7.1	−29.4%
17	Kaiserslautern	34	39	46.3	−7.3	−22.7%
18	Magdeburg	34	38	46.9	−8.9	−37.0%