Germany · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 18 May 2025

2. Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Elversberg	34	58	49.8	+8.2	+11.8%
2	Kaiserslautern	34	53	44.9	+8.1	+13.7%
3	Nurnberg	34	48	41.4	+6.6	+12.4%
4	Karlsruhe	34	52	46.6	+5.4	+11.5%
5	Magdeburg	34	53	49.5	+3.5	+11.6%
6	Fortuna Dusseldorf	34	53	50.3	+2.7	−5.9%
7	Hamburg	34	59	58.2	+0.8	−3.7%
8	Paderborn	34	55	54.6	+0.4	+3.6%
9	Hannover	34	51	51.5	−0.5	−12.9%
10	FC Koln	34	61	62.1	−1.1	−3.8%
11	Preußen Münster	34	36	38.6	−2.6	−12.4%
12	Greuther Furth	34	39	42.0	−3.0	−14.8%
13	Braunschweig	34	35	39.1	−4.1	−13.9%
14	Regensburg	34	25	30.0	−5.0	−32.1%
15	Darmstadt	34	42	48.2	−6.2	−21.3%
16	Ulm	34	30	36.8	−6.8	−44.9%
17	Hertha	34	44	51.3	−7.3	−16.4%
18	Schalke 04	34	38	46.0	−8.0	−24.8%