Germany · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 17 May 2026

2. Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Schalke 04	34	70	52.1	+17.9	+42.6%
2	Kaiserslautern	34	52	43.6	+8.4	+29.1%
3	Elversberg	34	62	55.2	+6.8	+6.8%
4	Paderborn	34	62	56.1	+5.9	+0.9%
5	Karlsruhe	34	44	39.0	+5.0	−7.5%
6	Hannover	34	60	57.1	+2.9	−0.3%
7	Darmstadt	34	52	50.1	+1.9	−22.4%
8	Greuther Furth	34	37	35.1	+1.9	+12.8%
9	Nurnberg	34	46	45.4	+0.6	−15.9%
10	Hertha	34	51	50.6	+0.4	+1.4%
11	Braunschweig	34	37	37.8	−0.8	−11.6%
12	Dresden	34	41	43.3	−2.3	−13.3%
13	Bochum	34	44	47.1	−3.1	−30.2%
14	Holstein Kiel	34	41	45.5	−4.5	−12.5%
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	34	37	44.3	−7.3	−13.0%
16	Bielefeld	34	39	48.7	−9.7	−31.6%
17	Preußen Münster	34	30	39.8	−9.8	−47.8%
18	Magdeburg	34	39	49.1	−10.1	−19.5%