Sweden · Season 2021 · Data up to 14 Dec 2021

Allsvenskan: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	AIK	30	59	49.0	+10.0	+21.5%
2	Kalmar	30	47	39.5	+7.5	+9.2%
3	Elfsborg	30	55	48.4	+6.6	+18.1%
4	Sirius	30	37	32.4	+4.6	+6.9%
5	Hammarby	30	53	48.9	+4.1	−8.6%
6	Varberg	30	37	34.0	+3.0	0.0%
7	Djurgarden	30	57	54.6	+2.4	+0.2%
8	Helsingborg	2	3	1.9	+1.1	+154.0%
9	Mjallby	30	38	37.9	+0.1	−9.0%
10	Degerfors	30	34	34.1	−0.1	+0.8%
11	Goteborg	30	41	41.1	−0.1	+6.5%
12	Norrkoping	30	44	45.3	−1.3	−4.8%
13	Malmo FF	30	59	60.4	−1.4	−10.3%
14	Orebro	30	18	26.1	−8.1	−42.6%
15	Halmstad	32	35	43.1	−8.1	−34.1%
16	Hacken	30	36	44.5	−8.5	−37.3%
17	Ostersunds	30	14	23.2	−9.2	−64.8%