Austria · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 29 May 2022

Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Austria Klagenfurt	32	36	29.4	+6.6	+7.0%
2	Salzburg	32	80	75.4	+4.6	+1.8%
3	Sturm Graz	32	56	52.0	+4.0	+0.2%
4	Wolfsberger AC	32	47	44.6	+2.4	+5.5%
5	Austria Vienna	32	46	43.8	+2.2	−18.1%
6	Tirol	35	43	40.9	+2.1	−11.3%
7	Ried	32	37	35.3	+1.7	−11.4%
8	Altach	32	29	30.5	−1.5	−9.4%
9	Hartberg	32	33	35.8	−2.8	−8.0%
10	SK Rapid	34	47	52.6	−5.6	−36.5%
11	Admira	32	31	38.4	−7.4	−43.8%
12	LASK	33	39	60.0	−21.0	−56.3%