Brazil · Season 2019 · Data up to 8 Dec 2019

Brasileirão: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Flamengo RJ	38	90	72.9	+17.1	+25.0%
2	Goias	38	52	40.2	+11.8	+40.5%
3	Santos	38	74	64.0	+10.0	+16.5%
4	Fortaleza	38	53	43.3	+9.7	+2.4%
5	Athletico-PR	38	64	57.4	+6.6	+5.1%
6	Sao Paulo	38	63	58.8	+4.2	−4.2%
7	Gremio	38	65	63.0	+2.0	+3.2%
8	Botafogo RJ	38	43	41.0	+2.0	−12.9%
9	Palmeiras	38	74	72.2	+1.8	−10.6%
10	Vasco	38	49	47.5	+1.5	−8.7%
11	Corinthians	38	56	54.5	+1.5	−20.9%
12	CSA	38	32	31.1	+0.9	+5.2%
13	Internacional	38	57	57.7	−0.7	−6.3%
14	Bahia	38	49	51.6	−2.6	−13.7%
15	Chapecoense-SC	38	32	36.1	−4.1	−15.1%
16	Fluminense	38	46	51.2	−5.2	+0.6%
17	Atletico-MG	38	48	55.9	−7.9	−29.2%
18	Ceara	38	39	47.7	−8.7	−26.0%
19	Avai	38	20	35.7	−15.7	−63.0%
20	Cruzeiro	38	36	55.6	−19.6	−58.4%