Brazil · Season 2023 · Data up to 7 Dec 2023

Brasileirão: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Gremio	38	68	54.0	+14.0	+37.9%
2	Botafogo RJ	38	64	53.3	+10.7	+42.8%
3	Cuiaba	38	51	43.7	+7.3	+39.7%
4	Internacional	38	55	51.4	+3.6	+2.5%
5	Atletico-MG	38	66	62.4	+3.6	+21.2%
6	Corinthians	38	50	46.7	+3.3	+0.8%
7	Bragantino	38	62	59.2	+2.8	−8.3%
8	Athletico-PR	38	56	53.3	+2.7	−9.2%
9	Palmeiras	38	70	69.1	+0.9	−13.1%
10	Fortaleza	38	54	54.3	−0.3	−1.3%
11	Flamengo RJ	38	66	66.6	−0.6	−0.6%
12	Fluminense	38	56	56.6	−0.6	−19.1%
13	Santos	38	43	44.1	−1.1	+9.0%
14	Goias	38	38	39.9	−1.9	−16.8%
15	Sao Paulo	38	53	55.3	−2.3	−23.3%
16	Vasco	38	45	48.2	−3.2	−19.0%
17	Bahia	38	44	48.3	−4.3	−15.0%
18	Cruzeiro	38	47	51.5	−4.5	−13.2%
19	Coritiba	38	30	36.1	−6.1	−0.8%
20	America MG	38	24	41.3	−17.3	−62.7%