Brazil · Season 2025 · Data up to 7 Dec 2025

Brasileirão: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Mirassol	38	67	47.6	+19.4	+35.0%
2	Cruzeiro	38	70	57.0	+13.0	+17.6%
3	Palmeiras	38	76	67.6	+8.4	+23.9%
4	Fluminense	38	64	56.3	+7.7	+8.0%
5	Bahia	38	60	55.3	+4.7	+11.1%
6	Botafogo RJ	38	63	58.9	+4.1	−8.9%
7	Flamengo RJ	38	79	75.4	+3.6	−0.3%
8	Gremio	38	49	46.1	+2.9	−7.4%
9	Vitoria	38	45	43.0	+2.0	−23.3%
10	Juventude	38	35	33.7	+1.3	−12.0%
11	Vasco	38	45	45.3	−0.3	−0.2%
12	Bragantino	38	48	49.3	−1.3	+2.4%
13	Ceara	38	43	45.3	−2.3	0.0%
14	Sao Paulo	38	51	53.8	−2.8	−18.6%
15	Fortaleza	38	43	46.2	−3.2	−17.2%
16	Corinthians	38	47	51.6	−4.6	−23.1%
17	Santos	38	47	52.2	−5.2	−13.9%
18	Atletico-MG	38	48	55.0	−7.0	−34.8%
19	Internacional	38	44	55.5	−11.5	−40.8%
20	Sport Recife	38	17	39.6	−22.6	−80.4%