Brazil · Season 2026 · Data up to 20 Oct 2026

Brasileirão: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Palmeiras	31	66	54.5	+11.5	+22.3%
2	Athletico-PR	31	53	42.5	+10.5	+18.2%
3	Atletico-MG	31	50	42.4	+7.6	+18.1%
4	Coritiba	31	39	34.1	+4.9	+29.9%
5	Flamengo RJ	31	67	62.2	+4.8	−1.5%
6	Bahia	31	49	45.0	+4.0	+1.8%
7	Cruzeiro	31	51	47.3	+3.7	+12.1%
8	Fluminense	31	51	47.5	+3.5	−8.5%
9	Santos	31	45	41.5	+3.5	+6.4%
10	Vitoria	31	37	34.3	+2.7	−26.2%
11	Botafogo RJ	31	39	40.5	−1.5	−14.4%
12	Sao Paulo	31	42	43.6	−1.6	−10.9%
13	Bragantino	31	41	43.6	−2.6	−15.8%
14	Mirassol	31	36	40.7	−4.7	−30.9%
15	Remo	31	26	30.8	−4.8	−46.4%
16	Gremio	31	31	37.1	−6.1	−54.6%
17	Chapecoense-SC	30	18	25.4	−7.4	−53.7%
18	Vasco	30	35	43.2	−8.2	−33.6%
19	Internacional	31	32	43.5	−11.5	−45.7%
20	Corinthians	31	33	44.6	−11.6	−41.7%