Germany · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 27 Jun 2020

Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	65	53.7	+11.3	+28.5%
2	Freiburg	34	48	37.5	+10.5	+19.1%
3	Hoffenheim	34	52	44.0	+8.0	+77.4%
4	Leverkusen	34	63	58.7	+4.3	+29.4%
5	Union Berlin	34	41	36.8	+4.2	+19.7%
6	Augsburg	34	36	34.3	+1.7	−22.3%
7	Dortmund	34	69	68.0	+1.0	−2.9%
8	Hertha	34	41	40.5	+0.5	+4.0%
9	Mainz	34	37	37.4	−0.4	+19.6%
10	Wolfsburg	34	49	49.5	−0.5	−4.7%
11	Bayern Munich	34	82	82.9	−0.9	−4.6%
12	RB Leipzig	34	66	67.6	−1.6	−20.4%
13	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	45	47.2	−2.2	+8.0%
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	34	30	34.4	−4.4	−41.9%
15	Schalke 04	34	39	44.1	−5.1	−34.5%
16	FC Koln	34	36	41.5	−5.5	−23.1%
17	Paderborn	34	20	28.9	−8.9	−53.6%
18	Werder Bremen	34	31	41.4	−10.4	−41.6%