Germany · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 22 May 2021

Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Wolfsburg	34	61	51.0	+10.0	−1.0%
2	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	60	50.8	+9.2	+10.7%
3	Union Berlin	34	50	43.3	+6.7	−1.8%
4	Freiburg	34	45	40.4	+4.6	+3.1%
5	Bielefeld	34	35	31.4	+3.6	−5.7%
6	Augsburg	34	36	33.4	+2.6	+6.6%
7	Mainz	34	39	36.8	+2.2	+33.1%
8	Stuttgart	34	45	44.1	+0.9	+1.1%
9	Bayern Munich	34	78	77.9	+0.1	−1.7%
10	RB Leipzig	34	65	66.8	−1.8	−17.4%
11	Hoffenheim	34	43	46.3	−3.3	−0.6%
12	FC Koln	34	33	36.7	−3.7	+6.1%
13	Dortmund	34	64	68.0	−4.0	−6.1%
14	Leverkusen	34	52	56.4	−4.4	−19.3%
15	Werder Bremen	34	31	36.5	−5.5	−40.9%
16	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	49	55.0	−6.0	−15.9%
17	Hertha	34	35	42.9	−7.9	−44.2%
18	Schalke 04	34	16	27.6	−11.6	−44.4%