Germany · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 14 May 2022

Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Union Berlin	34	57	45.0	+12.0	+35.8%
2	Bochum	34	42	32.5	+9.5	+55.9%
3	Freiburg	34	55	47.6	+7.4	+15.6%
4	FC Koln	34	52	45.1	+6.9	+4.6%
5	Leverkusen	34	64	57.4	+6.6	+8.0%
6	Dortmund	34	69	63.8	+5.2	+6.8%
7	Augsburg	34	38	34.3	+3.7	+22.2%
8	Mainz	34	46	47.0	−1.0	+7.6%
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	42	44.7	−2.7	+42.9%
10	Hertha	34	33	35.8	−2.8	−10.4%
11	Bielefeld	34	28	31.4	−3.4	−18.4%
12	Bayern Munich	34	77	80.8	−3.8	−7.4%
13	Hoffenheim	34	46	50.2	−4.2	−15.1%
14	Wolfsburg	34	42	46.3	−4.3	−6.8%
15	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	45	51.0	−6.0	−1.8%
16	Greuther Furth	34	18	25.1	−7.1	−67.2%
17	Stuttgart	34	33	41.1	−8.1	−46.8%
18	RB Leipzig	34	58	66.7	−8.7	−17.2%