Germany · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 27 May 2023

Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Union Berlin	34	62	48.5	+13.5	+32.2%
2	Freiburg	34	59	47.7	+11.3	+11.2%
3	Dortmund	34	71	61.9	+9.1	+13.3%
4	Wolfsburg	34	49	45.6	+3.4	+6.4%
5	RB Leipzig	34	66	62.6	+3.4	+9.0%
6	Augsburg	34	34	31.6	+2.4	+42.3%
7	Bochum	34	35	32.6	+2.4	+7.9%
8	Mainz	34	46	45.9	+0.1	+6.9%
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	50	50.0	0.0	−15.5%
10	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	43	43.5	−0.5	−8.0%
11	FC Koln	34	42	43.0	−1.0	−18.9%
12	Schalke 04	34	31	33.2	−2.2	−37.8%
13	Werder Bremen	34	36	39.2	−3.2	−5.6%
14	Leverkusen	34	50	55.2	−5.2	−7.1%
15	Hertha	34	29	35.2	−6.2	−25.4%
16	Bayern Munich	34	71	78.9	−7.9	−18.6%
17	Hoffenheim	34	36	44.1	−8.1	−28.5%
18	Stuttgart	34	33	45.6	−12.6	−57.8%