Germany · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 18 May 2024

Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Leverkusen	34	90	70.1	+19.9	+27.9%
2	Stuttgart	34	73	58.6	+14.4	+36.7%
3	Heidenheim	34	42	33.7	+8.3	+6.4%
4	Werder Bremen	34	42	36.8	+5.2	+62.8%
5	Dortmund	34	63	58.1	+4.9	+6.9%
6	Hoffenheim	34	46	43.0	+3.0	+10.9%
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	47	46.1	+0.9	+7.1%
8	Augsburg	34	39	39.8	−0.8	−23.5%
9	Freiburg	34	42	43.4	−1.4	−20.9%
10	RB Leipzig	34	65	66.8	−1.8	−15.1%
11	Bochum	34	33	37.4	−4.4	−24.5%
12	Bayern Munich	34	72	77.3	−5.3	−11.4%
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	34	40.3	−6.3	−44.7%
14	Wolfsburg	34	37	44.6	−7.6	−29.3%
15	Darmstadt	34	17	26.8	−9.8	−57.8%
16	Mainz	34	35	45.1	−10.1	−53.7%
17	Union Berlin	34	33	43.2	−10.2	−40.9%
18	FC Koln	34	27	37.3	−10.3	−62.0%