Germany · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 17 May 2025

Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	60	50.4	+9.6	+9.4%
2	Freiburg	34	55	45.8	+9.2	+7.8%
3	Werder Bremen	34	51	43.7	+7.3	+24.8%
4	Mainz	34	52	45.4	+6.6	+22.5%
5	Augsburg	34	43	39.4	+3.6	+10.2%
6	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	45	42.0	+3.0	−1.5%
7	Bayern Munich	34	82	80.3	+1.7	−8.2%
8	Leverkusen	34	69	68.9	+0.1	−16.8%
9	Wolfsburg	34	43	44.0	−1.0	−7.9%
10	Union Berlin	34	40	41.6	−1.6	−12.9%
11	Holstein Kiel	34	25	27.8	−2.8	−26.5%
12	RB Leipzig	34	51	54.8	−3.8	−21.0%
13	Heidenheim	34	29	33.5	−4.5	−10.4%
14	Dortmund	34	57	61.8	−4.8	−15.5%
15	St Pauli	34	32	37.7	−5.7	−18.4%
16	Stuttgart	34	50	56.4	−6.4	−11.4%
17	Bochum	34	25	32.9	−7.9	+1.8%
18	Hoffenheim	34	32	40.0	−8.0	−46.6%