Germany · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 16 May 2026

Bundesliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Dortmund	34	73	60.9	+12.1	+8.8%
2	Bayern Munich	34	89	80.5	+8.5	+7.6%
3	Hoffenheim	34	61	52.5	+8.5	+11.9%
4	RB Leipzig	34	65	56.9	+8.1	+6.1%
5	Stuttgart	34	62	55.9	+6.1	+2.2%
6	Augsburg	34	43	38.5	+4.5	+47.0%
7	Leverkusen	34	59	56.0	+3.0	+2.1%
8	Freiburg	34	47	45.7	+1.3	−12.1%
9	Hamburg	34	38	37.6	+0.4	−27.4%
10	Union Berlin	34	39	40.4	−1.4	−0.8%
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	44	46.7	−2.7	−33.9%
12	Mainz	34	40	43.3	−3.3	−13.3%
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	38	41.4	−3.4	−29.9%
14	Heidenheim	34	26	31.3	−5.3	−36.7%
15	Werder Bremen	34	32	40.2	−8.2	−43.9%
16	FC Koln	34	32	40.3	−8.3	−45.2%
17	St Pauli	34	26	36.4	−10.4	−39.8%
18	Wolfsburg	34	29	40.9	−11.9	−45.5%