England · Season 2026-27 · Data up to 24 Oct 2026

Championship: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Swansea	12	23	16.2	+6.8	+46.8%
2	Stoke	12	20	15.2	+4.8	+29.7%
3	Blackburn	12	18	14.0	+4.0	+25.8%
4	Southampton	12	24	20.1	+3.9	+31.8%
5	West Bromwich Albion	12	21	17.4	+3.6	+27.0%
6	Middlesbrough	12	25	21.8	+3.2	+6.5%
7	Queens Park Rangers	12	20	16.9	+3.1	−2.8%
8	Portsmouth	12	18	15.1	+2.9	+20.8%
9	Birmingham	12	20	17.2	+2.8	−1.6%
10	Bolton	12	14	11.8	+2.2	+63.4%
11	Lincoln	12	15	13.4	+1.6	+3.7%
12	Charlton	12	14	13.1	+0.9	−4.5%
13	Wolverhampton	12	21	20.8	+0.2	−4.5%
14	Millwall	12	15	15.8	−0.8	−18.8%
15	West Ham	12	22	23.0	−1.0	−13.3%
16	Sheffield United	12	16	17.3	−1.3	−18.0%
17	Bristol City	12	15	16.7	−1.7	−16.3%
18	Watford	12	11	12.9	−1.9	−32.6%
19	Cardiff	12	14	16.6	−2.6	−51.1%
20	Wrexham	12	14	17.3	−3.3	−39.1%
21	Derby	12	7	13.6	−6.6	−70.0%
22	Norwich	12	12	18.9	−6.9	−28.4%
23	Preston	12	5	13.2	−8.2	−80.8%
24	Burnley	12	8	16.6	−8.6	−80.9%