England · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 22 Jul 2020

Championship: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Cardiff	46	73	63.6	+9.4	+8.7%
2	Millwall	46	68	61.0	+7.0	+5.4%
3	Nottingham Forest	46	70	63.2	+6.8	+16.8%
4	Bristol City	46	63	57.1	+5.9	+10.0%
5	Fulham	46	81	76.0	+5.0	+4.0%
6	Derby	46	64	59.2	+4.8	−1.6%
7	Wigan	46	59	54.9	+4.1	+10.9%
8	Swansea	46	70	66.2	+3.8	−8.2%
9	West Bromwich Albion	46	83	81.0	+2.0	−5.0%
10	Blackburn	46	63	61.5	+1.5	−0.8%
11	Preston	46	66	64.5	+1.5	−7.8%
12	Luton	46	51	49.6	+1.4	+7.9%
13	Charlton	46	48	47.5	+0.5	−7.3%
14	Leeds	46	93	92.5	+0.5	−3.3%
15	Reading	46	56	55.7	+0.3	−3.0%
16	Brentford	46	81	81.2	−0.2	−2.1%
17	Queens Park Rangers	46	58	58.5	−0.5	+6.0%
18	Barnsley	46	49	53.3	−4.3	−8.5%
19	Huddersfield	46	51	56.5	−5.5	−7.8%
20	Middlesbrough	46	53	59.5	−6.5	−19.8%
21	Birmingham	46	50	57.4	−7.4	−26.3%
22	Stoke	46	56	65.5	−9.5	−5.6%
23	Sheffield Wednesday	46	56	65.8	−9.8	−17.7%
24	Hull	46	45	54.9	−9.9	−22.0%