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England · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 8 May 2021

Championship: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Norwich 46 97 81.9
+15.1
+16.5%
2 Watford 46 91 77.4
+13.6
+16.3%
3 Barnsley 46 78 64.9
+13.1
+22.5%
4 Swansea 46 80 68.2
+11.8
+22.6%
5 Queens Park Rangers 46 68 58.1
+9.9
+23.5%
6 Luton 46 62 52.8
+9.2
+20.5%
7 Reading 46 70 63.6
+6.4
+5.6%
8 Brentford 46 87 82.4
+4.6
0.0%
9 Wycombe 46 43 39.3
+3.7
+3.8%
10 Cardiff 46 68 65.5
+2.5
−4.3%
11 Preston 46 61 58.5
+2.5
+26.5%
12 Millwall 46 62 61.9
+0.1
−16.5%
13 Bristol City 46 51 52.1
−1.1
+7.5%
14 Middlesbrough 46 64 65.1
−1.1
−4.8%
15 Coventry 46 55 57.3
−2.3
−15.5%
16 Birmingham 46 52 54.3
−2.3
−2.9%
17 Bournemouth 46 77 79.5
−2.5
−3.9%
18 Stoke 46 60 63.4
−3.4
−16.0%
19 Huddersfield 46 49 53.1
−4.1
−11.7%
20 Nottingham Forest 46 52 61.6
−9.6
−31.9%
21 Sheffield Wednesday 46 47 56.9
−9.9
−7.9%
22 Rotherham 46 42 52.7
−10.7
−25.4%
23 Blackburn 46 57 68.7
−11.7
−29.5%
24 Derby 46 44 59.4
−15.4
−30.2%