England · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 7 May 2022

Championship: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Huddersfield	46	82	59.0	+23.0	+53.4%
2	Nottingham Forest	46	80	66.1	+13.9	+19.3%
3	Luton	46	75	63.2	+11.8	+19.7%
4	Bournemouth	46	88	79.0	+9.0	+9.8%
5	Millwall	46	69	62.4	+6.6	−0.1%
6	Blackpool	46	60	54.0	+6.0	+7.4%
7	Blackburn	46	69	65.2	+3.8	+4.5%
8	Queens Park Rangers	46	66	62.5	+3.5	+7.4%
9	Preston	46	64	60.9	+3.1	+4.4%
10	Bristol City	46	55	52.2	+2.8	+8.3%
11	Derby	46	55	52.7	+2.3	+11.9%
12	Swansea	46	61	60.0	+1.0	−2.0%
13	Fulham	46	90	91.4	−1.4	−4.3%
14	Middlesbrough	46	70	71.5	−1.5	−9.2%
15	Hull	46	51	53.1	−2.1	+12.0%
16	Reading	46	47	50.2	−3.2	+10.9%
17	Sheffield United	46	75	78.3	−3.3	−7.1%
18	Coventry	46	64	67.6	−3.6	−5.5%
19	Stoke	46	62	66.4	−4.4	−4.3%
20	Cardiff	46	53	57.9	−4.9	−6.1%
21	Peterborough	46	37	44.6	−7.6	−28.5%
22	Birmingham	46	47	55.5	−8.5	−25.8%
23	West Bromwich Albion	46	67	80.4	−13.4	−24.7%
24	Barnsley	46	30	48.9	−18.9	−61.5%