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England · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 8 May 2023

Championship: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Burnley 46 101 82.1
+18.9
+24.2%
2 Luton 46 80 67.3
+12.7
+13.9%
3 Sheffield United 46 91 79.4
+11.6
+18.5%
4 Blackburn 46 69 61.3
+7.7
+22.7%
5 Sunderland 46 69 62.2
+6.8
+12.1%
6 Coventry 46 70 65.4
+4.6
−1.2%
7 Preston 46 63 58.7
+4.3
+13.0%
8 Hull 46 58 53.7
+4.3
−7.2%
9 Huddersfield 46 53 49.2
+3.8
+11.8%
10 Swansea 46 66 64.1
+1.9
+1.6%
11 Rotherham 46 50 48.6
+1.4
−12.5%
12 Millwall 46 68 66.8
+1.2
+1.7%
13 Reading 46 50 49.2
+0.8
−16.0%
14 Bristol City 46 59 58.2
+0.8
−7.0%
15 Middlesbrough 46 75 75.3
−0.3
−1.4%
16 Birmingham 46 53 53.7
−0.7
+8.8%
17 Watford 46 63 68.1
−5.1
−15.3%
18 Blackpool 46 44 51.5
−7.5
−21.6%
19 Wigan 46 45 52.8
−7.8
−32.3%
20 Queens Park Rangers 46 50 59.1
−9.1
+1.9%
21 Cardiff 46 49 58.2
−9.2
−17.2%
22 West Bromwich Albion 46 66 76.8
−10.8
−20.9%
23 Stoke 46 53 65.7
−12.7
−20.0%
24 Norwich 46 62 74.8
−12.8
−22.0%