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England · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 4 May 2024

Championship: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Ipswich 46 96 80.4
+15.6
+14.0%
2 Preston 46 63 53.8
+9.2
+21.8%
3 Cardiff 46 62 53.4
+8.6
+50.9%
4 Leicester 46 97 88.8
+8.2
+14.1%
5 Norwich 46 73 67.3
+5.7
+0.3%
6 Hull 46 70 64.6
+5.4
+20.6%
7 West Bromwich Albion 46 75 70.4
+4.6
−4.9%
8 Bristol City 46 62 58.3
+3.7
+13.7%
9 Southampton 46 87 83.8
+3.2
+4.5%
10 Plymouth 46 51 48.2
+2.8
−4.9%
11 Queens Park Rangers 46 56 53.5
+2.5
+15.2%
12 Millwall 46 59 57.6
+1.4
+8.7%
13 Swansea 46 57 56.8
+0.2
−9.7%
14 Sheffield Wednesday 46 53 53.0
0.0
−6.9%
15 Leeds 46 90 92.0
−2.0
−3.2%
16 Middlesbrough 46 69 71.3
−2.3
+4.1%
17 Coventry 46 64 67.6
−3.6
−9.8%
18 Birmingham 46 50 54.7
−4.7
−21.7%
19 Stoke 46 56 61.7
−5.7
−9.6%
20 Huddersfield 46 45 51.1
−6.1
−35.3%
21 Watford 46 56 62.1
−6.1
−31.2%
22 Rotherham 46 27 34.6
−7.6
−48.1%
23 Blackburn 46 53 62.1
−9.1
−1.2%
24 Sunderland 46 56 66.2
−10.2
−18.3%