England · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 3 May 2025

Championship: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Burnley	46	100	77.6	+22.4	+28.5%
2	Sheffield United	46	92	73.6	+18.4	+29.0%
3	Oxford	46	53	46.3	+6.7	−2.2%
4	Millwall	46	66	59.4	+6.6	+17.7%
5	Plymouth	46	46	40.2	+5.8	+4.6%
6	Portsmouth	46	54	48.9	+5.1	+4.3%
7	Blackburn	46	66	62.4	+3.6	+14.7%
8	Leeds	46	100	97.0	+3.0	−6.8%
9	Queens Park Rangers	46	56	53.6	+2.4	−3.4%
10	Sunderland	46	76	74.2	+1.8	−2.3%
11	Bristol City	46	68	66.9	+1.1	−13.9%
12	Watford	46	57	57.2	−0.2	−0.7%
13	Swansea	46	61	61.5	−0.5	−5.2%
14	Coventry	46	69	69.9	−0.9	−3.2%
15	West Bromwich Albion	46	64	68.2	−4.2	−31.2%
16	Derby	46	50	54.4	−4.4	−11.0%
17	Preston	46	50	54.5	−4.5	−32.3%
18	Sheffield Wednesday	46	58	64.1	−6.1	−15.1%
19	Stoke	46	51	57.7	−6.7	−30.8%
20	Norwich	46	57	66.2	−9.2	−33.3%
21	Hull	46	49	59.0	−10.0	−18.5%
22	Cardiff	46	44	54.2	−10.2	−45.0%
23	Middlesbrough	46	64	77.5	−13.5	−26.7%
24	Luton	46	49	62.6	−13.6	−31.3%