England · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 2 May 2026

Championship: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Millwall	46	83	65.5	+17.5	+32.5%
2	Hull	46	73	57.5	+15.5	+43.9%
3	Coventry	46	95	81.2	+13.8	+13.3%
4	Wrexham	46	71	60.6	+10.4	+13.8%
5	Derby	46	69	58.7	+10.3	+23.5%
6	Preston	46	60	54.0	+6.0	+0.7%
7	Southampton	46	80	76.1	+3.9	−0.3%
8	Middlesbrough	46	80	76.1	+3.9	+6.6%
9	Swansea	46	64	60.6	+3.4	−3.6%
10	Norwich	46	65	61.7	+3.3	+9.2%
11	Queens Park Rangers	46	58	57.1	+0.9	+3.1%
12	Portsmouth	46	55	55.4	−0.4	−7.2%
13	Ipswich	46	84	84.4	−0.4	−12.6%
14	Charlton	46	53	54.3	−1.3	+4.0%
15	Bristol City	46	62	63.7	−1.7	−6.3%
16	Oxford	46	47	49.6	−2.6	−18.0%
17	Stoke	46	55	59.8	−4.8	−19.3%
18	Watford	46	57	63.1	−6.1	−27.2%
19	Blackburn	46	52	58.9	−6.9	−9.9%
20	Birmingham	46	64	73.2	−9.2	−28.9%
21	Sheffield United	46	60	71.4	−11.4	−13.9%
22	Leicester	46	52	65.4	−13.4	−35.3%
23	Sheffield Wednesday	46	18	32.6	−14.6	−78.0%
24	West Bromwich Albion	46	53	67.9	−14.9	−40.4%