China · Season 2021 · Data up to 12 Jan 2022

Super League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Shandong Taishan	22	51	42.9	+8.1	+6.5%
2	Changchun Yatai	22	39	33.1	+5.9	+15.5%
3	Guangzhou City	22	29	25.3	+3.7	−12.8%
4	Guangzhou FC	22	44	41.6	+2.4	+1.1%
5	Shanghai Port	22	45	42.8	+2.2	−11.3%
6	Henan Songshan Longmen	22	30	28.2	+1.8	−30.2%
7	Hebei	22	25	23.3	+1.7	−24.7%
8	Chengdu Rongcheng	2	4	2.4	+1.6	+62.5%
9	Zhejiang Professional	2	4	2.9	+1.1	+23.5%
10	Chongqing Liangjiang Athletic	22	20	19.5	+0.5	−17.6%
11	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	22	21	21.3	−0.3	−1.2%
12	Beijing Guoan	22	33	33.7	−0.7	+6.2%
13	Cangzhou	22	24	25.4	−1.4	−19.8%
14	Shanghai Shenhua	22	37	39.4	−2.4	−10.4%
15	Shenzhen	22	32	36.9	−4.9	−25.4%
16	Qingdao FC	24	12	19.5	−7.5	−52.1%
17	Dalian Pro	24	20	27.5	−7.5	−48.3%
18	Wuhan FC	22	20	29.5	−9.5	−72.7%