China · Season 2022 · Data up to 31 Dec 2022

Super League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Chengdu Rongcheng	34	65	52.0	+13.0	+47.2%
2	Zhejiang Professional	34	65	55.1	+9.9	+11.4%
3	Dalian Pro	33	45	39.5	+5.5	−17.6%
4	Wuhan Three Towns	34	78	73.1	+4.9	+6.1%
5	Shanghai Shenhua	34	53	48.8	+4.2	+3.6%
6	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	33	49	44.9	+4.1	+5.4%
7	Cangzhou	33	41	38.9	+2.1	+11.0%
8	Beijing Guoan	33	58	56.0	+2.0	−6.7%
9	Shandong Taishan	32	72	70.3	+1.7	−0.7%
10	Henan Songshan Longmen	34	59	57.5	+1.5	+7.5%
11	Shanghai Port	34	65	65.0	0.0	−4.7%
12	Meizhou Hakka	33	49	52.1	−3.1	−17.8%
13	Hebei	33	6	10.0	−4.0	−54.7%
14	Shenzhen	34	30	34.3	−4.3	−24.3%
15	Wuhan FC	34	28	32.3	−4.3	−49.1%
16	Changchun Yatai	34	44	49.6	−5.6	−20.3%
17	Guangzhou City	34	20	30.5	−10.5	−68.1%
18	Guangzhou FC	34	17	28.4	−11.4	−80.2%