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Poland · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 19 Jul 2020

Ekstraklasa: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Wisla Plock 37 51 42.9
+8.1
+15.5%
2 Piast Gliwice 37 61 54.3
+6.7
+23.3%
3 Lechia Gdansk 37 56 50.2
+5.8
+11.0%
4 Lech Poznan 37 66 60.6
+5.4
−4.2%
5 Pogon Szczecin 37 54 50.3
+3.7
+3.6%
6 Górnik Zabrze 37 53 50.2
+2.8
−7.7%
7 Rakow 37 53 50.7
+2.3
+10.6%
8 Jagiellonia 37 52 49.7
+2.3
−4.1%
9 Slask Wroclaw 37 54 52.2
+1.8
−13.4%
10 Cracovia 37 53 51.6
+1.4
+4.0%
11 Zaglebie 37 53 52.3
+0.7
+6.0%
12 Wisla 37 45 44.6
+0.4
−0.1%
13 Arka Gdynia 37 40 41.2
−1.2
−18.6%
14 Legia 37 69 70.8
−1.8
−6.9%
15 Korona Kielce 37 35 43.4
−8.4
−29.0%
16 LKS Lodz 37 24 42.8
−18.8
−52.2%