Poland · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 21 May 2022

Ekstraklasa: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Lechia Gdansk	34	57	48.0	+9.0	+4.6%
2	Rakow	34	69	60.6	+8.4	+18.7%
3	Wisla Plock	34	48	40.9	+7.1	+40.0%
4	Piast Gliwice	34	54	47.6	+6.4	+12.0%
5	Pogon Szczecin	34	65	59.5	+5.5	−3.2%
6	Lech Poznan	34	74	69.6	+4.4	−1.0%
7	Radomiak Radom	34	48	45.2	+2.8	−6.5%
8	Stal Mielec	34	37	34.3	+2.7	−4.5%
9	Warta Poznan	34	42	40.3	+1.7	+0.4%
10	Cracovia	34	46	45.2	+0.8	−6.4%
11	Górnik Zabrze	34	47	48.3	−1.3	−8.4%
12	Leczna	34	28	30.1	−2.1	−33.9%
13	Jagiellonia	34	40	42.6	−2.6	−19.9%
14	Zaglebie	34	38	41.9	−3.9	−13.4%
15	Bruk-Bet Termalica	34	32	37.6	−5.6	−32.2%
16	Slask Wroclaw	34	35	44.2	−9.2	−41.8%
17	Legia	34	43	54.3	−11.3	−28.9%
18	Wisla	34	31	45.1	−14.1	−45.9%