Poland · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 27 May 2023

Ekstraklasa: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Legia	34	66	56.1	+9.9	+10.7%
2	Stal Mielec	34	43	36.4	+6.6	+20.4%
3	Korona Kielce	34	41	34.8	+6.2	+16.5%
4	Rakow	34	75	69.5	+5.5	+3.2%
5	Piast Gliwice	34	53	48.2	+4.8	+1.2%
6	Pogon Szczecin	34	60	56.2	+3.8	−9.2%
7	Warta Poznan	34	45	43.3	+1.7	−1.3%
8	Zaglebie	34	45	43.3	+1.7	+0.9%
9	Lech Poznan	34	61	59.9	+1.1	−6.9%
10	Górnik Zabrze	34	48	47.3	+0.7	+3.4%
11	Cracovia	34	46	46.6	−0.6	−9.4%
12	Radomiak Radom	34	44	45.8	−1.8	−12.4%
13	Jagiellonia	34	41	42.9	−1.9	−38.0%
14	Widzew Lodz	34	41	43.9	−2.9	−15.7%
15	Slask Wroclaw	34	38	41.4	−3.4	−14.7%
16	Wisla Plock	34	37	42.6	−5.6	−23.9%
17	Lechia Gdansk	34	30	39.9	−9.9	−31.1%
18	Legnica	34	23	37.2	−14.2	−64.4%