Poland · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 25 May 2024

Ekstraklasa: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Slask Wroclaw	34	63	45.4	+17.6	+55.1%
2	Jagiellonia	34	63	51.3	+11.7	+17.3%
3	Stal Mielec	34	43	33.4	+9.6	+43.7%
4	Górnik Zabrze	34	53	43.5	+9.5	+29.2%
5	Puszcza	34	40	33.6	+6.4	−12.1%
6	Widzew Lodz	34	46	43.2	+2.8	+1.5%
7	Zaglebie	34	47	46.2	+0.8	+0.4%
8	Pogon Szczecin	34	55	55.9	−0.9	−10.0%
9	Warta Poznan	34	37	39.3	−2.3	−16.0%
10	Legia	34	59	62.2	−3.2	−15.3%
11	Korona Kielce	34	38	42.5	−4.5	−47.9%
12	Ruch Chorzow	34	32	37.3	−5.3	−42.1%
13	Lech Poznan	34	53	59.8	−6.8	−24.3%
14	Radomiak Radom	34	38	45.3	−7.3	−4.5%
15	Cracovia	34	39	47.3	−8.3	−31.4%
16	LKS Lodz	34	24	33.9	−9.9	−47.7%
17	Piast Gliwice	34	43	53.1	−10.1	−38.6%
18	Rakow	34	52	62.8	−10.8	−27.4%