Poland · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 24 May 2025

Ekstraklasa: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Lech Poznan	34	70	60.7	+9.3	+18.9%
2	Motor Lublin	34	49	40.2	+8.8	+27.6%
3	Jagiellonia	34	61	52.3	+8.7	+21.9%
4	GKS Katowice	34	49	42.5	+6.5	+18.1%
5	Rakow	34	69	64.0	+5.0	+8.4%
6	Korona Kielce	34	45	40.0	+5.0	−13.7%
7	Cracovia	34	51	46.2	+4.8	+21.6%
8	Pogon Szczecin	34	58	55.7	+2.3	−5.6%
9	Górnik Zabrze	34	47	45.0	+2.0	−1.0%
10	Lechia Gdansk	34	37	38.3	−1.3	−10.2%
11	Radomiak Radom	34	41	43.0	−2.0	−4.7%
12	Widzew Lodz	34	40	43.1	−3.1	−18.7%
13	Piast Gliwice	34	45	48.9	−3.9	−11.0%
14	Puszcza	34	28	32.9	−4.9	−32.4%
15	Legia	34	54	59.5	−5.5	−24.8%
16	Zaglebie	34	36	41.6	−5.6	−19.1%
17	Stal Mielec	34	31	39.0	−8.0	−43.3%
18	Slask Wroclaw	34	30	44.0	−14.0	−53.6%