Poland · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 23 May 2026

Ekstraklasa: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Zaglebie	34	48	39.4	+8.6	+41.4%
2	GKS Katowice	34	50	42.6	+7.4	+1.2%
3	Wisla Plock	34	46	41.3	+4.7	+11.9%
4	Jagiellonia	34	56	52.0	+4.0	−4.4%
5	Górnik Zabrze	34	56	52.1	+3.9	+6.9%
6	Motor Lublin	34	43	41.0	+2.0	−15.5%
7	Lech Poznan	34	60	58.1	+1.9	−8.9%
8	Radomiak Radom	34	44	42.3	+1.7	−15.0%
9	Arka Gdynia	34	36	36.6	−0.6	−23.6%
10	Rakow	34	55	56.2	−1.2	−4.7%
11	Bruk-Bet Termalica	34	34	35.6	−1.6	+7.5%
12	Korona Kielce	34	43	45.1	−2.1	−19.8%
13	Pogon Szczecin	34	45	47.5	−2.5	−6.7%
14	Lechia Gdansk	34	43	46.9	−3.9	−12.7%
15	Cracovia	34	42	46.8	−4.8	−26.3%
16	Piast Gliwice	34	41	45.9	−4.9	−2.9%
17	Widzew Lodz	34	42	49.9	−7.9	−27.4%
18	Legia	34	49	57.5	−8.5	−35.7%