Norway · Season 2026 · Data up to 18 Oct 2026

Eliteserien: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Viking	23	56	45.3	+10.7	+24.6%
2	Rosenborg	23	37	33.3	+3.7	−6.0%
3	Bodo/Glimt	23	56	52.6	+3.4	−1.0%
4	HamKam	23	26	22.7	+3.3	+8.7%
5	Fredrikstad	23	29	25.9	+3.1	−10.7%
6	Lillestrom	23	36	33.0	+3.0	+5.8%
7	KFUM Oslo	23	29	26.7	+2.3	−8.3%
8	Tromso	23	40	38.5	+1.5	−10.3%
9	Molde	23	40	38.6	+1.4	+9.5%
10	Kristiansund	23	19	19.8	−0.8	−3.0%
11	Sarpsborg 08	23	28	29.3	−1.3	−10.5%
12	Aalesund	23	24	25.7	−1.7	−17.7%
13	Sandefjord	23	24	26.4	−2.4	−23.3%
14	Valerenga	23	26	32.2	−6.2	−29.1%
15	Brann	23	29	36.4	−7.4	−9.7%
16	Start	23	16	23.5	−7.5	−50.5%