Norway · Season 2023 · Data up to 10 Dec 2023

Eliteserien: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Tromso	30	61	41.0	+20.0	+102.9%
2	Viking	30	58	48.4	+9.6	+28.4%
3	Stromsgodset	30	42	33.5	+8.5	+60.7%
4	Bodo/Glimt	30	70	62.0	+8.0	+10.9%
5	Brann	30	61	56.0	+5.0	+8.9%
6	Odd	30	38	33.6	+4.4	−2.5%
7	HamKam	30	34	31.6	+2.4	+4.9%
8	Sandefjord	30	31	29.3	+1.7	−19.1%
9	Kristiansund	2	3	1.7	+1.3	+191.5%
10	Haugesund	30	33	32.1	+0.9	−21.4%
11	Rosenborg	30	39	40.7	−1.7	+2.4%
12	Lillestrom	30	43	45.4	−2.4	−13.1%
13	Sarpsborg 08	30	41	46.1	−5.1	−8.2%
14	Stabaek	30	29	34.8	−5.8	−34.5%
15	Molde	30	51	58.0	−7.0	−16.8%
16	Aalesund	30	18	28.5	−10.5	−22.1%
17	Valerenga	32	32	46.2	−14.2	−44.2%