Netherlands · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 8 Mar 2020

Eredivisie: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Willem II	26	44	32.9	+11.1	+100.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar	25	56	49.8	+6.2	+42.8%
3	FC Emmen	26	32	27.5	+4.5	−14.8%
4	VVV Venlo	26	28	25.0	+3.0	+17.2%
5	Feyenoord	25	50	47.6	+2.4	−9.2%
6	Heracles	26	36	33.8	+2.2	−3.4%
7	Fortuna Sittard	26	26	23.8	+2.2	−14.6%
8	Sparta Rotterdam	26	33	33.6	−0.6	−18.8%
9	Vitesse	26	41	41.6	−0.6	−11.2%
10	Groningen	26	35	35.6	−0.6	+0.2%
11	Zwolle	26	26	27.0	−1.0	−37.6%
12	Utrecht	25	41	43.1	−2.1	−10.5%
13	Twente	26	27	29.2	−2.2	−17.0%
14	PSV Eindhoven	26	49	51.3	−2.3	−20.9%
15	Heerenveen	26	33	35.8	−2.8	−12.4%
16	Ajax	25	56	60.9	−4.9	−17.1%
17	Den Haag	26	19	24.4	−5.4	−48.3%
18	Waalwijk	26	15	22.3	−7.3	−25.5%