Netherlands · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 16 May 2021

Eredivisie: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Ajax	34	88	81.8	+6.2	+2.5%
2	Fortuna Sittard	34	41	34.9	+6.1	+3.6%
3	AZ Alkmaar	34	71	65.0	+6.0	+5.7%
4	Groningen	34	50	44.3	+5.7	+10.4%
5	Vitesse	34	61	56.1	+4.9	+11.9%
6	PSV Eindhoven	34	72	69.3	+2.7	−11.8%
7	Sparta Rotterdam	34	47	44.8	+2.2	−12.8%
8	Heracles	34	44	42.6	+1.4	−14.8%
9	Waalwijk	34	30	31.1	−1.1	−25.1%
10	Zwolle	34	38	39.4	−1.4	−28.1%
11	Feyenoord	34	59	61.3	−2.3	−19.6%
12	Den Haag	34	22	24.9	−2.9	−40.3%
13	Heerenveen	34	39	43.7	−4.7	−34.5%
14	Twente	34	41	45.9	−4.9	−2.3%
15	VVV Venlo	34	23	28.9	−5.9	−29.9%
16	FC Emmen	34	30	36.0	−6.0	−28.9%
17	Utrecht	34	53	59.7	−6.7	−33.3%
18	Willem II	34	31	40.0	−9.0	−46.0%