Netherlands · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 15 May 2022

Eredivisie: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Twente	34	68	48.2	+19.8	+56.8%
2	PSV Eindhoven	34	81	73.0	+8.0	+3.4%
3	Waalwijk	34	38	32.0	+6.0	+16.8%
4	Cambuur	34	39	35.4	+3.6	−5.9%
5	Vitesse	34	51	48.3	+2.7	+17.2%
6	Fortuna Sittard	34	35	32.8	+2.2	+2.0%
7	Nijmegen	34	38	36.0	+2.0	−9.5%
8	Go Ahead Eagles	34	36	34.6	+1.4	+20.2%
9	Heerenveen	34	41	40.3	+0.7	−22.8%
10	Feyenoord	34	71	70.5	+0.5	−2.4%
11	Ajax	34	83	84.4	−1.4	−6.8%
12	AZ Alkmaar	34	61	63.3	−2.3	+9.8%
13	Willem II	34	33	36.5	−3.5	−17.8%
14	Sparta Rotterdam	34	35	39.6	−4.6	−31.3%
15	Groningen	34	36	41.0	−5.0	−22.3%
16	Heracles	34	34	40.4	−6.4	−26.7%
17	Utrecht	34	47	54.7	−7.7	−10.1%
18	Zwolle	34	27	36.9	−9.9	−39.1%