Netherlands · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 28 May 2023

Eredivisie: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Sparta Rotterdam	34	59	42.0	+17.0	+23.9%
2	Feyenoord	34	82	70.9	+11.1	+13.3%
3	AZ Alkmaar	34	67	61.6	+5.4	+18.7%
4	Volendam	34	36	31.3	+4.7	−14.5%
5	Excelsior	34	32	28.1	+3.9	−11.7%
6	Twente	34	64	60.1	+3.9	−2.1%
7	Waalwijk	34	41	37.4	+3.6	−18.2%
8	Utrecht	34	54	50.9	+3.1	−12.5%
9	Fortuna Sittard	34	36	34.8	+1.2	−4.4%
10	PSV Eindhoven	34	75	74.2	+0.8	+2.8%
11	Go Ahead Eagles	34	40	39.4	+0.6	−25.2%
12	Heerenveen	34	46	45.5	+0.5	−20.9%
13	Nijmegen	34	39	43.1	−4.1	−47.5%
14	Vitesse	34	40	46.7	−6.7	−18.8%
15	Ajax	34	69	77.8	−8.8	−28.3%
16	FC Emmen	34	28	37.2	−9.2	−34.3%
17	Cambuur	34	19	32.4	−13.4	−32.0%
18	Groningen	34	18	35.5	−17.5	−47.3%