Netherlands · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 18 May 2025

Eredivisie: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Utrecht	34	64	51.0	+13.0	+37.3%
2	Ajax	34	78	69.0	+9.0	+22.5%
3	Zwolle	34	41	35.7	+5.3	−1.7%
4	Go Ahead Eagles	34	51	46.6	+4.4	−2.1%
5	Fortuna Sittard	34	41	37.0	+4.0	−7.3%
6	Heracles	34	38	34.4	+3.6	−15.3%
7	Heerenveen	34	43	42.2	+0.8	+14.1%
8	PSV Eindhoven	34	79	79.7	−0.7	−3.8%
9	Feyenoord	34	68	69.5	−1.5	−8.9%
10	Groningen	34	39	40.6	−1.6	−35.1%
11	Nijmegen	34	43	44.7	−1.7	+11.6%
12	NAC Breda	34	33	35.0	−2.0	−15.7%
13	AZ Alkmaar	34	57	60.5	−3.5	−15.2%
14	Waalwijk	34	25	29.6	−4.6	−52.2%
15	Twente	34	54	59.7	−5.7	−29.1%
16	Willem II	34	26	32.8	−6.8	−38.6%
17	Sparta Rotterdam	34	39	46.8	−7.8	−33.6%
18	Almere City	34	22	32.6	−10.6	−52.4%