Netherlands · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 17 May 2026

Eredivisie: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	PSV Eindhoven	34	84	72.4	+11.6	+20.1%
2	Nijmegen	34	59	53.4	+5.6	+14.9%
3	Fortuna Sittard	34	39	35.0	+4.0	+14.9%
4	Utrecht	34	53	50.1	+2.9	+12.1%
5	Volendam	34	32	29.2	+2.8	−3.6%
6	Heerenveen	34	51	48.6	+2.4	−17.6%
7	Excelsior	34	38	36.4	+1.6	+6.8%
8	Zwolle	34	37	35.6	+1.4	−21.0%
9	Telstar	34	37	35.8	+1.2	+27.7%
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	43	42.6	+0.4	+2.1%
11	Groningen	34	48	48.5	−0.5	+2.0%
12	Feyenoord	34	65	65.9	−0.9	−18.8%
13	Twente	34	58	61.1	−3.1	−23.0%
14	Go Ahead Eagles	34	38	41.4	−3.4	−37.8%
15	Ajax	34	56	60.7	−4.7	−28.1%
16	AZ Alkmaar	34	52	60.0	−8.0	−29.0%
17	NAC Breda	34	29	40.4	−11.4	−62.1%
18	Heracles	34	19	31.1	−12.1	−60.6%