Greece · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 19 Jul 2020

Super League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Olympiakos	36	91	80.4	+10.6	+10.9%
2	Panathinaikos	36	58	51.8	+6.2	−17.9%
3	AEK	36	69	65.4	+3.6	−6.9%
4	Lamia	33	35	32.7	+2.3	−45.8%
5	Volos NFC	33	31	30.6	+0.4	−10.8%
6	Asteras Tripolis	33	43	42.8	+0.2	−22.8%
7	PAOK	36	73	73.7	−0.7	−14.2%
8	Xanthi	33	36	36.9	−0.9	+12.0%
9	Atromitos	33	42	43.2	−1.2	−22.8%
10	Larisa	33	36	38.3	−2.3	−27.6%
11	Panionios	33	29	33.5	−4.5	−44.4%
12	OFI Crete	36	36	42.5	−6.5	−33.6%
13	Aris	36	42	49.9	−7.9	−43.7%
14	Panetolikos	33	29	37.1	−8.1	−56.7%