Greece · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 17 May 2022

Super League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Olympiakos	36	83	71.0	+12.0	+24.1%
2	Ionikos	33	45	33.7	+11.3	+42.2%
3	Giannina	36	46	38.3	+7.7	+34.8%
4	Aris	36	62	57.0	+5.0	+28.5%
5	OFI Crete	33	44	39.9	+4.1	+6.8%
6	Panathinaikos	36	61	57.3	+3.7	−4.2%
7	Volos NFC	33	40	38.0	+2.0	+17.2%
8	PAOK	36	64	64.0	0.0	−1.9%
9	Panetolikos	33	37	37.3	−0.3	+17.6%
10	Asteras Tripolis	33	41	46.9	−5.9	−19.0%
11	Atromitos	33	33	38.9	−5.9	−33.4%
12	AEK	36	56	64.0	−8.0	−29.7%
13	Apollon	33	22	31.6	−9.6	−58.1%
14	Lamia	33	26	36.7	−10.7	−38.8%