Greece · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 19 May 2024

Super League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	PAOK	36	80	69.6	+10.4	+18.9%
2	Aris	36	55	47.9	+7.1	+23.7%
3	Lamia	36	35	31.0	+4.0	−9.5%
4	Panathinaikos	36	72	68.4	+3.6	+5.1%
5	Panserraikos	33	38	36.2	+1.8	−32.7%
6	AEK	36	78	76.9	+1.1	−7.3%
7	Olympiakos	36	74	73.2	+0.8	−4.1%
8	Panetolikos	33	36	35.5	+0.5	−35.5%
9	Asteras Tripolis	33	38	38.7	−0.7	−7.8%
10	Volos NFC	33	34	35.3	−1.3	−35.6%
11	Atromitos	33	34	36.7	−2.7	−23.2%
12	OFI Crete	33	35	42.1	−7.1	−38.0%
13	Kifisia	33	26	35.2	−9.2	−57.1%
14	Giannina	33	23	34.9	−11.9	−54.2%